This decline has primarily been attributed to the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East. According to Xeneta, a platform for analyzing sea and air freight rates, while the ceasefire does not guarantee the safety of ships passing through the Red Sea, it has been sufficient to calm market sentiment and significantly impact international freight rates.
The Ho Chi Minh City Logistics Association forecasts that shipping rates are unlikely to rise sharply in 2025 due to the pressures of an oversupply of new ships, risks of supply chain disruptions from strikes, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.
Based on forecasts from reputable global organizations, PetroVietnam Transportation Corporation (PVTrans) believes that crude oil freight rates will struggle to remain high in 2025 as crude oil supply surpasses demand.
In bulk shipping, freight rates are expected to decline as supply and demand dynamics shift compared to 2024, with supply growth outpacing demand.
Pham Viet Anh, chairman of PVTrans, told VIR that while demand for marine transportation continues to grow, this outlook is not entirely favorable due to several challenges, including geopolitical instability, risks tied to the restructuring of global supply chains, and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. import tariffs.
As a result, PVTrans has set a cautious revenue target of $412 million and a pre-tax profit of $48 million for 2025, reflecting a 13% drop in revenue and a 36% decrease in profit compared to unaudited 2024 results.
"A cautious approach in 2025 is a reasonable strategy given the unpredictable global economic fluctuations," Anh stated.
Ho Si Thuan, director of Phuong Dong Vietnam Shipping and Logistics JSC (PVT Logistics), shares similar concerns about the unpredictable risks facing the global economy, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the potential escalation in the Middle East.
Moreover, the Trump administration's trade policies are expected to have a significant impact on the global supply chain, especially within the maritime transport industry.
As a result, PVT Logistics is targeting $58 million in revenue and $4.4 million in pre-tax profit in 2025, representing a 2% decline in revenue and a 62% drop in profit compared to the company's estimated 2024 results.
Thuan added that this year, the company will focus on safely and efficiently operating its fleet of oil, chemical, and bulk carriers while adopting measures to mitigate adverse market conditions to avoid disrupting production and business operations.
Looking ahead, Vietnam Maritime Transport JSC's leadership anticipates that the company’s shipping volume could reach seven million tonnes in 2025, representing an 8% year-on-year increase.
However, the company’s revenue and pre-tax profit targets are expected to decline by 12% and 9.6%, respectively, compared to the same period last year, falling to $212 million and $15.04 million.
Despite these challenges, shipping volume remains a bright spot for the maritime transport sector this year.
According to statistics from the Vietnam Maritime Administration, the country’s port system handled an estimated 864.4 million tonnes of cargo last year, a 14% year-on-year increase. Containerized cargo volume is expected to reach 29.9 million TEU, up 21% from the previous year.
The World Trade Organization forecasts that global merchandise trade volume will grow by 3% in 2025 compared to the previous year.
Exports from Asian countries are expected to grow by 4.7% this year. With Vietnam’s increasing integration into global supply chains, the country's maritime transport sector is poised to benefit from rising global demand for freight services.